Abstract
A cooperative approach for REDD+ between developing and developed countries can be a sound means to achieve national and global mitigation targets. To accomplish the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of countries and the global 2 °C climate target more effectively, it is necessary to explore the coordination options, based on the understanding of bilateral REDD+ cooperation. This study explains the current status of bilateral REDD+ cooperation and investigates determinants affecting REDD+ recipient decisions of donor countries, by analyzing bilateral REDD+ arrangements, which has been promoted for 10 years under the the Kyoto Protocol regime from 2006 until 2015. The results show that Norway and Japan supported more than half of the total financial pledges for bilateral REDD+ projects for 10 years. Out of 87 REDD+ recipients, four countries—Brazil, India, Indonesia, and China—accounted for more than half of the 10-year financial pledges. Approximately 78% of total financing was found to be concentrated in the top 10 recipients. The aid darlings and orphans problem, the concentration of bilateral supports in a few developing countries and the exclusion of several developing countries from the recipient selection process, which has been discussed in ODA researches, was also observed. Applying a shared frailty model, recipient need, recipient merit, and donor interest was found to be the main determinants of donors’ REDD+ recipient decision. Donor interest and recipient merit were found to have more significant effects on the decision than recipient need. A balanced two-track approach is further required, in which, along with the bilateral REDD+ cooperation in the REDD+ darling countries, international organizations and multilateral funds for REDD+ need to increase financial accessibility, including the result-based compensation system for the REDD+ orphan countries.
Highlights
The global target of limiting the global temperature rise to below 2 ◦ C is expected to be difficult to achieve if the emission gap is not reduced by 2030 [1]
To confirm the relationship between the recipient’s national forest cover ratio and the deforestation rate to donor’s support decision, we investigated the relative importance of HFHD and HFLD compared to LFLD
Similar to previous studies on climate change Official Development Assistance (ODA), which identified that the larger the forest cover got, the more financing was allocated [61], we found that the donors were more likely to support countries with a higher ratio of forest cover than those with lower forest cover ratios as recipients
Summary
The global target of limiting the global temperature rise to below 2 ◦ C is expected to be difficult to achieve if the emission gap is not reduced by 2030 [1]. The Parties submit their national emission reduction targets by reporting the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which consist of an unconditional target to be achieved by their own effort and a conditional target premised on international support. Additional GHG reduction of at least three times the existing annual mitigation effort, or 15 GtCO2 e, is required [2,3].
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