Abstract
This study investigates the determinants of agricultural output in Syria, 1980-2010. The Johansen cointegration test results indicate that agricultural outputs are positively related to the capital, food exports, expenditure and arable land, and negatively related to the oil price. Arable land has the biggest effect on agricultural outputs. The Granger causality test indicates bidirectional short-run causality relationships between capital, food exports, expenditure, arable land and agricultural outputs, and unidirectional short-run causality relationship running from oil price to agricultural outputs. There are also unidirectional long-run causality relationships moving from agricultural outputs to gross fixed capital formation of agriculture, oil price, food exports and arable land. However, there is no long-run causality relationships between final consumption expenditure and agricultural outputs. The result indicates that it is important to speed up the land reclamation process and encourage the investment in the agricultural sector.
Highlights
Syria is a middle-income developing country with a diversified economy
Johansen Cointegration Test Results Since all the variables are stationary in the first difference, we can use the cointegration test to determine the presence of any cointegration or long-run relationship among the variables based on the Johansen cointegration test
There is evidence of a unidirectional shortrun causality relationship running from lnOP to lnAO, implying that changes in oil prices affect the agricultural output through changes in the cost of production
Summary
Syria is a middle-income developing country with a diversified economy. The agricultural sector is one of the largest contributors to GDP and it plays a major role in Syria’s economic development for achieving national food security, promoting Syrian trade and providing jobs for the rural people.Vegetables and livestock production are the main productions of the agricultural sector in Syria. Syria is a middle-income developing country with a diversified economy. The agricultural sector is one of the largest contributors to GDP and it plays a major role in Syria’s economic development for achieving national food security, promoting Syrian trade and providing jobs for the rural people. Vegetables and livestock production are the main productions of the agricultural sector in Syria. The major agricultural products include wheat, barley, cotton, maize, potatoes, lentils, tobacco, apples, citrus, chickpeas, sugar beet, onions, peanuts, olives, grapes, and tomatoes (El-Quqa et al, 2007). The main agricultural export items are cotton, cereals, fruits, vegetables, and tobacco. Cotton is at the number one position of Syrian agricultural exports. Cotton is the second most important cash crop (after wheat) (Beintema et al, 2006)
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