Determinants of Aboveground Carbon Storage of Woody Vegetation in an Urban–Rural Transect in Shanghai, China

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Carbon storage of urban woody vegetation is crucial for climate change mitigation. Biomass structure and species composition have been shown to be important determinants of carbon storage in woody vegetation. In this study, allometric equations were used to estimate the aboveground carbon storage of urban woody vegetation along an urban–rural transect in Shanghai. A random forest model was developed to evaluate the importance scores and influence of species diversity, canopy cover, species evenness, and tree density on aboveground carbon storage. The results showed that tree density, canopy cover, species diversity, species evenness, and aboveground carbon storage of urban woody vegetation vary with the degree of urbanization and urban–rural environment. In addition, the Bayesian optimization algorithm optimized the random forest model parameters to enhance model accuracy, and good modeling results were demonstrated in the study. The R2 was at 0.61 in the testing phase and 0.78 in the training phase. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) were 0.84 Mg/ha of carbon in the testing phase and 0.57 Mg/ha in the training phase, which is indicative of a low error of the optimized model. Tree species diversity, canopy cover, species evenness, and tree density were found to correlate with aboveground carbon storage. Tree density was the most important contributor, followed by species diversity and canopy cover, and species evenness was the least effective for aboveground carbon storage. Meanwhile, the results of the partial dependence analysis indicated the combination of factors most conducive to aboveground carbon storage at a tree density of 2200 trees/ha, canopy cover of 50%, species diversity of 1.2, and species evenness of 0.8 in the transect. The findings provided practical recommendations for urban forest managers to adjust the structure and composition of woody vegetation to increase carbon storage capacity and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.