Determinants, efficiency and potential of agri-food exports from Nigeria to the EU: Evidence from the stochastic frontier gravity model

Abstract

This study uses an extended gravity model to examine the determinants, efficiency and potential of agri-food exports from Nigeria to the EU for the 1995–2019 period. It uses a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to estimate the extended gravity model. The results show that the economic size (GDP) of Nigeria and the EU countries, as well as bilateral distance, positively determine agri-food exports from Nigeria to the EU. Also, the results show that Nigeria's agri-food exports to the EU are negatively determined by the income (per capita GDP) of Nigeria and its EU trading countries, bilateral exchange rate and EU new member states (NMS). The results further show that Nigeria scores relatively low in terms of the efficiency of its agri-food exports to the EU countries. On a final note, the study shows that Nigeria's agri-food exports with the EU have a relatively large potential that has not been exploited. We document policy recommendations in this study.