Determinants and effects of Poland’s road accidents in the context of the 2030 agenda for sustainable development – poviat level analysis for the years 2010-2019

Abstract

The objective of the research was to assess how selected factors influence road safety in Poland’s poviats. To that end, an analysis was conducted of road accident determinants and effects in the poviats in the years 2010-2019. The time horizon fits in with Goal 3.6. of Agenda 2030 which is to halve the number of global deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents by 2020. The article presents the results of the analysis for the following determinants: the rate of car ownership by poviat, poviat spending on transport and length of road network, and quality of road infrastructure. The research problem was to establish which of the poviats are closest to achieving Goal 3.6. of Agenda 2030 and how likely it is, and, as a consequence, which of the poviats should step up their road safety policies to align them to the targets set out in the Agenda. To identify groups of poviats sharing similar characteristics, they were grouped using the k-means method. Five groups of poviats were identified and analysed for how their road safety indicators changed between 2010 and 2019. The results of the analysis show that the highest fatality reduction (-40%) was achieved by urban poviats with the highest per capita spending on transport. The same poviats, however, have the highest increases in serious injuries (+30%). The analyses show that Polish poviats are still far from achieving Goal 3.6 of Agenda 2030. The research results presented in the article are original for the poviat level.