Abstract
Infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) are increasing in frequency worldwide. We analyzed underlying drivers of 116 IDTEs detected in Europe during 2008-2013 by epidemic intelligence at the European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control. Seventeen drivers were identified and categorized into 3 groups: globalization and environment, sociodemographic, and public health systems. A combination of >2 drivers was responsible for most IDTEs. The driver category globalization and environment contributed to 61% of individual IDTEs, and the top 5 individual drivers of all IDTEs were travel and tourism, food and water quality, natural environment, global trade, and climate. Hierarchical cluster analysis of all drivers identified travel and tourism as a distinctly separate driver. Monitoring and modeling such disease drivers can help anticipate future IDTEs and strengthen control measures. More important, intervening directly on these underlying drivers can diminish the likelihood of the occurrence of an IDTE and reduce the associated human and economic costs.
Highlights
Infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) are increasing in frequency worldwide
A 2008 study, which was conducted by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and based on expert consultation and literature review, projecting how the risk of emerging infectious diseases in Europe will be shaped in the future determined that drivers can be categorized into 3 main groups: globalization and environment, sociodemographic, and public health systems (Table 1) [7]
The driver category that was by far the most frequently involved in single IDTEs was globalization and environment (61%), followed by the public health system failure (21%) and sociodemographic (18%) groups
Summary
We analyzed underlying drivers of 116 IDTEs detected in Europe during 2008–2013 by epidemic intelligence at the European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control. A 2008 study, which was conducted by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and based on expert consultation and literature review, projecting how the risk of emerging infectious diseases in Europe will be shaped in the future determined that drivers can be categorized into 3 main groups: globalization and environment, sociodemographic, and public health systems (Table 1) [7]. The ECDC is an EU agency with a mission to identify, assess, and communicate current and emerging threats to human health posed by infectious diseases This charge is accomplished through epidemic intelligence, a process to detect, verify, analyze, assess, and investigate events that may represent a threat to public health. The daily activity of epidemic intelligence at ECDC involves active or automated web searches from confidential and official
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