Determinación de indicadores críticos para evitar el riesgo de crédito en Mipymes antioqueñas

Abstract

When it comes to loyalty of MSMEs, the Colombian financial sector assumes a conception of commercial banking, not investment banking, reason why, a high credit risk is assumed by ignoring the early warning indicators that could mitigate such risk. Credit borrowers lack concepts, knowledge and tools to warn the credit condition demanded by lenders, in this sense, this paper describes the design and development of a software tool Construction at the service of Antioquia’s MSMEs, which is based on the appropriation of knowledge on the Income Statement, the Balance Sheet and the Cash Flow of 3,766 companies monitored by Supersociedades from 2010 to 2014, to generate indicators that determine both credit risk and risk in the business unit. With this exercise it is possible to show the relationship between early warning indicators, i.e., “traditional credit risk models that predict the bankruptcy of enterprises from the independent variables (financial reasons, micro and macroeconomic indicators) most relevant to statistical level”, and the likelihood of non-compliance of the credit liabilities as well as the probability of bankruptcy of Antioquia’s MSMEs improving the econometric mo­dels with pioneering works of predicting corporate bankruptcies such as those of Edward I. Altman.