Detection of multidecadal oceanic variability by ocean data assimilation in the context of a “perfect” coupled model

Abstract

The impact of oceanic observing systems, external radiative forcings due to greenhouse gas and natural aerosol (GHGNA), and oceanic initial conditions on long time variability of oceanic heat content and salinity is assessed by the assimilation of oceanic “observations” in the context of a “perfect” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report model. According to times and locations at which observations are available, the 20th century expendable bathythermograph (XBT) temperature and 21st century Argo temperature and salinity observations are drawn from a model simulation (set as the “truth”) with historical GHGNA radiative forcings. These model observations are assimilated into another coupled model simulation based on temporally varying or fixed year GHGNA values and different oceanic initial conditions. The degree to which the assimilation recovers the truth variability of oceanic heat content and salinity is an assessment of the impact of each factor on the detection of the oceanic “climate.” Results show that both the 20th century XBT and 21st century Argo observations adequately capture the basin‐scale variability of heat content. The Argo salinity observations appear to be necessary to reproduce the North Atlantic thermohaline structure and variability. The addition of historical radiative forcings does not make a significant contribution to the detection skill. The initial conditions spun up by historical GHGNA produce better detection skill than the initial conditions spun up by preindustrial fixed year GHGNA due to reduced assimilation shocks. While the 20th century XBT temperature observations alone capture some basic features of salinity variations of the tropical ocean due to the strong T‐S relationship from tropical air‐sea interactions, the Argo salinity observations are important for global state estimation, particularly in high latitudes where haline effects on ocean density are greater.