Detection and Prediction of Water Body and Aquatic Plants Cover Changes of Choghakhor International Wetland, Using Landsat Imagery and the Cellular Automata–Markov Model

Abstract

The quantitative and qualitative study of wetland ecosystems is the main base for their sustainable use. In arid and semi-arid regions such as Iran, importance of wetlands is more obvious. Providing new information of changes in wetlands during several decades help us finding the reasons of alteration and making programs and policies. One of the most effective techniques in this field is remote sensing. Choghakhor international wetland, one of the most important wetlands in Iran. In this study, satellite images of MSS, TM, ETM +, and OLI were used during 1976–2017 to identify changes within the wetland. Also, the distribution of aquatic plants has been evaluated with NDVI index as an environmental indicator due to their key role on these aquatic ecosystems. After mapping the changes in wetland patterns over times, a cellular automata model (CA) was used to simulate changes up to the 2030s. The results of the time processing map data of the maps show the gradual decrease of the area (water body) of the wetland in the spring and more in the autumn season, which is more evident in recent years. However, the aquatic plants of the wetland in recent years has been. In general, three life periods for the Choghakhor wetland could be defined: “natural period”, “developmental period” and “dehydration period”. According to the CA model, the water body of the wetland shows a decreasing trend by 2030. On the other hand, aquatic plants growing in the wetland and its surroundings, which could be due to the high nutrient and organic load in future. Therefore, having an integrated strategy and program to improve the status of this unique ecosystem is necessary more than ever.