Detection and estimation trends linked to air quality and mortality on French Riviera over the 1990–2005 period

Abstract

There is a profound relation between human health and well being from the one side and air pollution levels from the other. Air quality in South of France and more specifically in Nice, is known to be bad, especially in summer. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test has been developed for detecting and estimating monotonic trends in the time series and applied in our study at annual values of pollutants air concentrations and mortality. An important objective of many environmental monitoring programs is to detect changes or trends in pollution levels over time. Over the period 1990–2005, concerning the emissions of main pollutants, we obtained significant decreasing trends. By considering the ozone mean values in urban areas over the 1997–2005 period, an increase of 3.0% year−1 was obtained with annual averages and 3.9% year−1 with median values. A clear increasing trend for PM10 ambient concentrations is obtained. In addition, we observed an increase of the Olea (and Grass) pollination season. Over the same period, an annual change rate of +0.31% year−1 for “airway diseases” and of +2.50% year−1 for “unknown causes” were identified in the “Alpes Maritimes” county. To see the results, there seems to be a short-term link between the levels of these pollutants and mortality for respiratory causes. The other pollutants concentration showed a downward trend reflecting the reduction policy of the emissions. In addition, we obtained significant decreasing trends concerning the “ischemic heart diseases” (−1.20% year−1) and “asthma” (−4.03% year−1) categories. No significant gender-related difference was identified for these groups.