Abstract
Ecosystem regime shifts, which are long-term system reorganizations, have profound implications for sustainability. There is a great need for indicators of regime shifts, particularly methods that are applicable to data from real systems. We have developed a form of Fisher information that measures dynamic order in complex systems. Here we propose the use of Fisher information as a means of: (1) detecting dynamic regime shifts in ecosystems, and (2) assessing the quality of the shift in terms of intensity and pervasiveness. Intensity is reflected by the degree of change in dynamic order, as determined by Fisher information, and pervasiveness is a reflection of how many observable variables are affected by the change. We present a new robust methodology to calculate Fisher information from time series field data. We demonstrate the use of Fisher information to detect regime shifts on a model for a shallow lake. Next, we use Fisher information to analyze marine ecosystem response to physical changes using real time-series data of a coastal marine ecosystem, the North Pacific Ocean.
Highlights
The study of regime shifts in complex dynamic systems has been quickly gaining importance because of the implications that regime shifts can have for modern society
We have developed a form of Fisher information that measures dynamic order in complex systems
In this work we propose this latter form of the Fisher information along with a new robust calculation methodology as a measure of dynamic order in complex systems
Summary
The study of regime shifts in complex dynamic systems has been quickly gaining importance because of the implications that regime shifts can have for modern society. Kates and Parris (2003) provide an insightful review on the changes and long-term trends in socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological systems and their relation to sustainability transition. These complex, diverse systems have a common characteristic, namely dynamic order, when looked at from an information point of view, in that they are orderly and wellorganized dynamic systems. Regime shifts can be defined as substantial, longterm reorganizations of complex systems such as societies, ecosystems, and climate (Carpenter and Brock 2006). Some examples of regime shifts include eutrophication of lakes and coastal oceans, shifts among grassy and woodland
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