Abstract
A study was conducted to test whether it is possible to build a model to distinguish true and false allegations of rape based on the theory of fabricated rape. The theory is based on the principle that a false complainant of rape has not been raped and has to fabricate a story while the story of a true victim is based on recollections of the event. Consequently, false complainants will behave as liars do, construct their story based on their own sexual experiences and on mental representations, beliefs of how such a crime would happen (De Zutter et al. in Eur J Psychol Appl Leg Context. doi:10.1016/j.ejpal.2016.02.002, 2016). To test the theory and to build a model to discriminate between true and false allegations of rape, a police sample of true and false allegations was studied. A total of 129, 72 true and 57 false, allegations of rape fulfilled the stringent criteria of the current study, among others on ground truth. Fifty-four allegations of rape, 27 true and 27 false, were used to build a prediction model based on the theory of bounded rationality by Gigerenzer (2002). The remaining 75 cases, 45 true and 30 false, were blindly categorised as either true or false based on the model. The model was able to predict the true nature of the majority of allegations with an accuracy rate of 91 %. Thus, it seems possible to discriminate to a considerable extend between true and false allegations of rape.
Highlights
The Problem of False Allegations of RapeFalse allegations of rape are a problem for all parties involved
Twenty-two additional files were excluded from the sample, since the allegations did not meet the criteria of the definition of a false allegation of rape used in the current study
It is possible to predict the true nature of an allegation of rape
Summary
The Problem of False Allegations of RapeFalse allegations of rape are a problem for all parties involved. The dire consequences of a false allegation of rape are best illustrated by the case of Gary Dotson. He was the first DNA exoneree in the USA (Gross et al 2005). He became the victim of a false allegation made by Kathleen Crowell Webb and spent 10 years in and out of prison as a consequence Webb made such a compelling allegation that even when she recanted her allegation and told the truth, not everyone believed that the rape had never occurred (Taylor 1987). Be helpful to detect false complainants, as soon as possible, before they can cause harm
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