Detecting somatic growth trends for summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) using a state-space approach

Abstract

In the past four decades, summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) abundance in the Northwest Atlantic shifted with no definitive explanation for this shift. Here, we extract patterns in population-level size variability from summer flounder mean length-at-age data from 1992 to 2015 using an autoregressive state-space modeling approach and annual fishing and oceanographic covariates. We found that summer flounder length-at-age varies annually, suggesting that productivity can vary annually due to variable sizes. We found that location and depth of the observed fish, exploitation, and the Gulf Stream appeared to influence the magnitude of length-at-age variation, whereby lengths-at-age were above the mean length at greater depth, northern latitudes, and during periods characterized by a northerly Gulf Stream position or higher fishing exploitation. These factors should be considered as indicators to track size and more accurately understand productivity as the summer flounder population changes and the fishery adapts in response. This study brings us closer to annual proxies for summer flounder length-at-age variation, an important tool for fisheries managers and stock-assessment scientists to more accurately predict fish stock abundances and productivity.