Abstract
Several studies have shown that European police crash reports provide different detail degrees of work zone crash-related data. In this sense, the present study aims to verify the possibility of identifying significant risk factors involved in the occurrence of road work zone crashes with casualties, based on the official data usually available, through a descriptive, binary logistic, and probit regression statistical analysis. To accomplish the analysis, a total of 2597 police-reports related to 1767 Portuguese work zone crashes that occurred during the 2013–2015 period were considered and binary logistic and probit regression models were estimated by the main type of crash, contributing factor, and driver age group. Fifteen explanatory variables, selected based on the literature review and crash data provided in police crash reports, were considered in the analysis. The results obtained for the estimated coefficients and goodness-of-fit test values were found very similar for both link functions (logit and probit) and it was possible to identify risk factors. The modeling results pointed to excessive speed, disregard for vertical signs, luminosity, intersections, and motorcycle and heavy vehicle involvement as the most significant risk factors. Given the results, it is possible to conclude that binary logistic regression can be used in the statistical analysis of the available police official work zone crash data to identify and get some insight into the risk factors involved in work zone crashes. Data analysis also revealed the need to promote adequate and complete crash report filling by police officers. While police crash reports are not revised and standardized to incorporate more detailed work zone crash information, this approach can be used to support a more efficient road operation decision making and the review of some aspects related to work zone layout design.
Highlights
IntroductionTo maintain its quality and safety standards, maintenance and reconstruction actions are needed
The road infrastructure is an essential component of a country’s development
This study aims to verify the possibility of identifying, based on the official crash data currently available in most statistical bulletins, risk factors with impact in work zone crashes and to compare the results provided by two statistical methods
Summary
To maintain its quality and safety standards, maintenance and reconstruction actions are needed The performance of such actions makes it necessary to study the impact that roadworks may have on crashes as work zones change locally and temporarily the traffic conditions offered to drivers (lower speeds, presence of work equipment and workers, narrow lanes, changes in vertical and horizontal signs, etc.). A review of the road safety literature revealed that vehicle-vehicle angle, rear-end and run-off-road crashes, and vehicle running over a pedestrian (including road workers on foot), are the most common types of crashes in work zones [6,7,8,9,10] Most of these crashes involved vehicles running straight and some of the most significant contributory factors are excessive speed for the road conditions, the presence of an unexpected obstacle on the road, and the disregard for traffic control devices and signs [6,10,11,12,13]. A more significant monthly period can be identified in the warmer months of the year, chosen for carrying out roadworks (climatic conditions allow for more effective and durable results); the presence of a police officer is pointed as a favorable factor (decreases the crash occurrence probability) [7,11], and the involvement of heavy vehicles is common [6,8,11,13]
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