Detecting Multilevel Poverty-Causing Factors of Farmer Households in Fugong County: A Hierarchical Spatial–Temporal Regressive Model

Abstract

Accurate examination of poverty-causing factors and their mechanisms of poverty-stricken farmer households from a fine scale is conducive to policy implementation and long-term effective poverty reduction. The spatial effects in most previous studies are not fully considered, resulting in less reliability of detection results. Therefore, by fully considering background effects and spatial–temporal effects, this study designs a hierarchical spatial–temporal regressive model (HSTRM) to accurately identify the factors as well as mechanisms that cause poverty more reasonably. The empirical study of Fugong County, Yunnan Province, China, shows that: (1) There has been a certain degree of spatial effects in the study area over the years; therefore, spatial effects should be considered. (2) The poverty degree of farmer households in the study area is affected by individual factors and background factors. Therefore, poverty-causing factors should be observed at different levels. (3) Poverty-causing factors feature different action mechanisms. The influence of the village-level factors on poverty is greater than that of the household level. In addition, the village-level factors have a certain impact on the contribution of household-level factors to poverty. This study offers technical support and policy guidance for sustainable poverty reduction and development of poor farmer households.