Abstract
This study investigates how land use and climate changes affect water yield ecosystem service (ES) in the Sirvan River basin, located in Iran’s Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces. By detecting land-use and climatic parameter changes in the past, their future evolution were modeled by scenario making. For this purpose, we developed two land-use scenarios (low and high urbanization) and two climatic scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 and RCP 8.5). The implemented scenarios showed how the amount of water yield in the basin and sub-basins changes in the future based on climate and land-use changes. The results showed that, concerning land use, the forest has decreased from 2013 to 2019, and built-up areas have increased. Also, the results showed that precipitation has been declining in the long term, and the temperature has been rising. Finally, the Water yield in 2019 was higher than in 2013 and lower in the future based on forecast scenarios. This trend will continue until 2040. In addition, it was found that the t effects of these factors on water yield ES are a complex process, and based on the results, the impact of climatic factors is more significant than the one of land-use change. We could conclude that this region will face more environmental problems in the future.
Highlights
Over the last decade, the ecosystem service (ES) approach was in the spotlight because it presents significant advantages for enhancing environmental planning and decisionmaking processes (Rozas-Vásquez et al 2019)
Future planning requires scenario-making for land-use change, which is developed according to multiple factors such as population growth, urban growth, agricultural development, conservation policies, and other influential factors
The results showed that climatic parameters affect water yield more than land-use changes (Saddique et al 2020)
Summary
The ecosystem service (ES) approach was in the spotlight because it presents significant advantages for enhancing environmental planning and decisionmaking processes (Rozas-Vásquez et al 2019). The integration of ES into planning has mainly been debated at a theoretical level (Hansen and Pauleit 2014), while there is less evidence on the efforts proposing the integration of ES into decisions about land use (Ashnani et al 2018). The number of ES assessments has increased in the last decade, as shown by recent studies at supranational (Maes et al 2020), national (Mugiraneza et al 2019) and regional levels (Nikodinoska et al 2018). Many factors influence ES, most importantly, land use (Lang et al 2017) and climate change. Land use patterns can directly change ecosystem types, landscape patterns, and
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