Abstract
In this work, we describe the integration of Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) forecasts produced by CIMA Research Foundation within ITHACA Extreme Rainfall Detection System (ERDS) to increase the forecasting skills of the overall early warning system. The entire workflow is applied to the heavy rainfall event that affected the city of Palermo on 15 July 2020, causing urban flooding due to an exceptional rainfall amount of more than 130 mm recorded in about 2.5 h. This rainfall event was not properly forecasted by meteorological models operational at the time of the event, thus not allowing to issue an adequate alert over that area. The results highlight that the improvement in the quantitative precipitation scenario forecast skills, supported by the adoption of the H2020 LEXIS computing facilities and by the assimilation of in situ observations, allowed the ERDS system to improve the prediction of the peak rainfall depths, thus paving the way to the potential issuing of an alert over the Palermo area.
Highlights
Events Using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF)-Extreme Rainfall Detection System (ERDS)The Weather and Climate pilot of the LEXIS (Large-scale EXecution for Industry &Society) H2020 project aims at developing workflows based on weather-related models to improve existing hydro-meteorological applications for severe rainfall, flash-flood, wildland forest fires, and air quality predictions [1,2]
[7].work, we describe the integration of WRF forecasts into the ERDS system to provide more accurate and timely heavy rainfall alerts
Maps of rainfall depths were evaluated using the different datasets, and the thresholds masks were applied to evaluate the possible presence of heavy rainfall events
Summary
The Weather and Climate pilot of the LEXIS Society) H2020 project aims at developing workflows based on weather-related models to improve existing hydro-meteorological applications for severe rainfall, flash-flood, wildland forest fires, and air quality predictions [1,2]. This pilot is taking advantage of cloud solutions and large-scale geographically distributed High-Performance Computing (HPC). CIMA Research Foundation is running a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with different configurations and twice-a-day updates The model has a European coverage and three nested domains of 22.5, 7.5 and 2.5 km resolution (Figure 1). A detailed overview of several validation studies performed by CIMA
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