Abstract

We predict that the YORP thermal-emission effect can be directly detected through a measurable increase in the rotation period of the several-hundred-meter near-Earth asteroid 25143 Itokawa. The fractional change of Itokawa's rotation rate in between 2001 and 2004 should be (1-2) x 10 -4 , significantly larger than its currently estimated uncertainty ≃5 × 10 -5 . The corresponding change of sidereal rotation phase, normalized to unity in a cycle, is ≃ (0.09-0.25) in January 2004, producing ≃(1-3) h delay of lightcurve maximum.

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