Detectability analysis of interplate fault slips in the Nankai subduction thrust using seafloor observation instruments

Abstract

To help the decision making regarding where to locate new observation instruments on the seafloor, we examined the detectability of interplate earthquakes and slow slips in the Nankai subduction thrust in Japan using seafloor observation instruments. Here, the detectability is defined as the smallest magnitude of the interplate fault slip detected by the assumed observation points based on crustal deformation simulation. In the detectability analyses, we considered the effect of sensor drifts that are particularly associated with seafloor observations. In addition, we introduced high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) finite element modeling of crustal deformation to consider the effect of the topography and 3D heterogeneous crustal structure around the Nankai Trough. The results of the detectability analyses show that introducing new seafloor stations for tilt observation in the Nankai region should increase the detectability of small- or medium-sized interplate earthquakes and slow slips significantly. Based on the obtained results, we also discuss the advantage of both the existing and the new observation instruments in detecting interplate fault slips.