Despite a century of warming, increased snowfall has buffered the ice phenology of North America’s largest high-elevation lake against climate change

Abstract

Lakes are sentinels of environmental change. In cold climates, lake ice phenology—the timing and duration of ice cover during winter—is a key control on ecosystem function. Ice phenology is likely driven by a complex interplay between physical characteristics and climatic conditions. Under climate change, lakes are generally freezing later, melting out earlier, and experiencing a shorter duration of ice cover; however, few long-term records exist for large, high-elevation lakes which may be particularly vulnerable to climate impacts. Here, we quantified ice phenology over the last century (1927–2022) for North America’s largest high-elevation lake—Yellowstone Lake—and compared it to seven similar lakes in northern Europe. We show that contrary to expectation, the ice phenology of Yellowstone Lake has been uniquely resistant to climate change. Indeed, despite warming temperatures in the region, no change in the timing nor duration of ice cover has occurred at Yellowstone Lake due to buffering by increased snowfall. However, with projections of continued warming and shifting precipitation regimes in the high Rocky Mountains, it is unclear how long this buffering will last.