Designing the Novel Imported Pork Producer Declaration Price Index Using Chinese Customs Import Declarations

Abstract

Pork accounts for a high proportion of the Chinese population’s meat consumption, and imported pork is heavily traded, reducing supply of domestic pork in the face of continued demand. Global pork markets are becoming more competitive, riding the wind of the bilateral free trade agreement. The World Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) compiles prices for other major food categories but does not track changes in the imported pork prices in China. This study has filled this gap by designing the Imported Pork Producer Declaration Price Index (PPI_IPD). Using the well-known Producer Price Index (PPI) model, PPI_IPD is based on the data from Chinese customs import declarations, which has high reliability and reasonableness. For this reason, the index can help governments, enterprises, analysts, and others to conduct analysis for imported pork prices in China and avoid international trade risks. The findings show that proposed PPI_IPD is highly correlated with the Chinese domestic pork market and the pork price industry stock market. The index helps monitor changes in international pork prices and is an effective tool for analyzing and controlling trade risks.