Designing an explainable bio-inspired model for suspended sediment load estimation: eXtreme Gradient Boosting coupled with Marine Predators Algorithm

Abstract

This study aimed to develop an accurate and reliable model for predicting suspended sediment load (SL) in river systems, which is crucial for water resource management and environmental protection. While Xtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), a powerful ensemble machine learning (ML) model, has been employed in previous studies, the novelty of this research lies in the introduction of a hybrid approach that synergistically combines XGB with the bio-inspired Marine Predators Algorithm (XGB-MPA) to estimate SL in the Yeşilirmak River (Turkey). To this end, streamflow (Q) and sediment concentration (SC) values as well as their lag times (1 to 3 month lag times) were fed as input variables – under 9 scenarios – into ML models. A time series of datasets from March 1973 to December 2011 and January 2012 to March 2023 were used for training and testing of ML models, respectively. The superiority of the proposed model (XGB-MPA) compared to two other hybrid models, including XGB-PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) and XGB-GWO (Grey Wolf Optimization) was also investigated. According to the results, the simultaneous application of Q and SC lag time values as inputs has led to the best SL estimates by XGB-MPA, with XGB-MPA9 (RMSE = 103.7 ton/day; NSE = 0.96) exhibiting the lowest error rates. In addition, XGB-MPA has performed better than XGB in all scenarios, with the lowest and highest reduction in RMSE being 19.3% (scenario 5) and 97.4% (scenario 1), respectively. When comparing the performance of hybrid models, the proposed XGB-MPA model has performed best with MAE, RMSE and NSE of 40.94, 103.7 and 0.96, respectively, in comparison with 816.02, 1063.74 and −2.94 for XGB-PSO and 693.16, 981.68 and −2.37 for XGB-GWO. Further research can include the use of time series of efficient variables extracted from satellite images (e.g. land cover, river morphology, etc.) as model inputs. Highlights Improvement of SL estimation by coupling MPA with XGB model Using delayed combinations of streamflow and sediment concentration as model inputs Superiority of MPA compare to PSO and GWO in SL estimation Greater variations in SHAP caused by sediment concentration compared to streamflow Further studies required on the effects of hydrological and topographical features