Designing an effective risk communication plan as a tool to reduce the risk associated with traditional burning practices in Portugal

Abstract

Climate change increases the average temperature and reduces precipitation, leading to an increased risk of rural fires around the world, but mainly in regions with a Mediterranean climate, such as Portugal. Despite the high risk of rural fires, fire is still a traditional land management practice. Beyond fire misused risk, the accumulation of fuel loads, due to the high population dispersion and lower interaction of communities with the land, also drives rural fires risks. Thus, researchers have sought to understand the key features of communication practices to achieve the most desired natural risk management results in relation to rural fires. According to the Committee on Risk Perception and Communication, in 1989, risk communication is defined as “an interactive process of exchanging information and opinions between individuals, groups, and institutions”. However, there is a need for dialogue between the responsible for communication and relevant stakeholders. The Carnegie Mellon mental-models approach encompasses participatory processes to translate the nature and magnitude of the risk, allowing for a deeper understanding of what can be done to mitigate social and environmental impacts in the future. Considering rural fires risks and risk communication challenges, this study aims to design an effective risk communication plan oriented to the rural population, in the context of rural fires. For this objective to be achieved, the mental models approach was developed, exploring the underlying reasons for resistance to behavioral change and defining guidelines to support the design of new risk communication strategies, including the dissemination of new behaviors and practices that mitigate the ignition of rural fires. This systemic approach has been applied and tested in the rePLANT project, whose purpose is the development of research activities, innovation and transfer of knowledge and technology, to increase sustainable forest management, the competitiveness of the Portuguese forestry sector and reduce the impact of rural fires. Preliminary findings show what must be communicated about rural fires risk, how must be communicated, target audiences' profiles, the role of actors for effective risk communication on rural fires, attributes of good risk communication on rural fires, evaluation of the risk communication results. Finally, it is expected that this research provides guidelines to help decision-makers and stakeholders to design an effective risk communication plan oriented to prevent traditional burning practices, as well as to mitigate socioeconomic and environmental impacts in the future. This approach also highlights the importance of exploring the underlying reasons for resistance to behavioral change and defining guidelines to support the design of new risk communication strategies.