Designing a sustainable bioethanol supply chain network: A combination of machine learning and meta-heuristic algorithms

Abstract

Bioethanol demands have increased during the last decade due to unexpected events worldwide. It is among the renewable energy sources that are utilized to replace fossil-fuel-based energy. Designing an efficient, Sustainable Bioethanol Supply Chain Network (SBSCN) is a critical task for the government and communities to manage the bioethanol demands appropriately. The contribution of this study is threefold. First, this study project the demand using three popular machine learning methods, including Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Ensemble Learning (Adaboost) methods, to find the best one to be utilized as an input to the proposed mathematical to find optimal values for strategic, planning, and tactical decision variables. Second, the unemployment rate is considered an important parameter of the model to maximize the social effects. Third, since the proposed model of this study is NP-hard, to solve the problem, the CPLEX solver is applied for small size and two meta-heuristic algorithms, including Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) and Multi-Objective Invasive Weed Optimization (MOIWO) are considered for medium and large size problems to find Pareto optimal solutions. Due to the sensitivity of two meta-heuristics algorithms, the Taguchi method, such as Max Spread (MS) and Mean Ideal Distance (MID), is utilized to control the parameters of those two applied algorithms. Since North Dakota (ND) is among the states with the most potential to produce bioethanol due to its vast land area, including marginal cropland and Conservation Research Program (CRP), the proposed model has been evaluated and validated based on the ND case study. The results show that the MOIWO algorithm outperforms NSGA-II based on the proposed model and the case study of this paper. Also, this algorithm is more reliable in terms of solution quality to tackle the problem. Finally, some research directions are discussed for future studies, and managerial insights are provided. • Bioethanol consumption experienced an increasing due to unexpected worldwide event. • Utilizing machine learning approaches to estimate the bioethanol demand in N.D. • Designing sustainable bioethanol supply chain by two meta-heuristic algorithms. • Optimal locations of biorefinery, pre-processing, distribution, and demand centers. • Gradual replacement of liquid fossil fuels with bioethanol to reduce air pollutions.