Design wind speeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones

Abstract

In recent years computer simulation methods predicting extreme wind speeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones have been developed and shown to give reasonable estimates of long-term risk levels arising from these winds. In this paper refinements of the model are presented with the emphasis on improvements to the statistical distribution functions describing tropical cyclone characteristics used in the simulation. In particular the relationships chosen for the two parameters which influence wind speeds the most, the central pressure difference and the decay rate after landfall, represent significant changes from previous models. The application of the simulation to specific oceanic regions is discussed and the results of a case study conducted along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States presented.