Design risk modeling and analysis for railway construction projects

Abstract

A systematic and comprehensive risk assessment is essential for the success of railway construction projects. Even though numerous studies have been conducted on railway construction project risk assessment, few attempts have been made to evaluate the overall dynamics, interrelationships, uncertainty, and impact of risks on project objectives. To address these limitations, this study developed a risk analysis model to evaluate the impact of design-related risks on delays and cost overruns of the Addis-Djibouti railway construction project. The model was developed using fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) and system dynamics (SD) approaches. The results of the study revealed that scope change and design changes were the predominant design risks that have a higher impact on delays and cost overruns. The proposed model can be used as a project risk analysis tool for other construction projects to help managers identify significant risks and analyze dynamic effects on project objectives.