Design of the macroeconomic evolution of Romania's agriculture 2020–2040

Abstract

The aim of the article is to design the macroeconomic evolution of Romania's agriculture through three indicators, considered by the authors the most important in rendering the level of sectoral development, namely: Output of the Agricultural Industry, Intermediate Consumption, and Gross Value Added. The selected indicators largely reflect the level and trends of efficiency of economic activity in agriculture. The study is based on the historical evolution, over the last 20 years, of the three indicators, respectively an estimated presentation of their evolution over the next 20 years. The analysis was performed at the level of three countries (Romania, France and Germany), respectively at the level of the average in the European Union. A main purpose of the research is to analyze the extent to which Romania can approach the agricultural performance of these countries by 2040. The working method is based on the exploitation of historical data, followed by the anticipation of their progress based on power regression functions. Key findings highlight that in view of macroeconomic indicators considered, maintaining the same historical rate of development for all countries, Romania cannot reach the average level of the EU or other countries with which we compare itself (France or Germany) until 2040. A hypotheses based on an annual increases of 3.5% for Romania, would allow the recovery of gaps, taking into account the new prospective of the evolution of production and future reform measures in agriculture under the umbrella of the Common Agricultural Policy. The authors' contribution to the realization of the theme is important in order to outline Romania's rural strategy at the horizon of 2040 and the possibilities of counteracting the differences of convergence between it and the countries studied.