Abstract
Disaster insurance is an important tool for achieving sustainable development in modern agriculture. However, in China, the design of such insurance indexes is far from sufficient. In this paper, the single-season rice in Jiangsu Province of China is taken as an example to design the high-temperature damage index in summer and the low-temperature damage index in autumn to construct the formula calculating the weather output and single-season rice yield reduction. The daily highest, lowest and average temperatures between 1999 and 2015 are selected as main variables for the temperature disaster index to quantitatively analyze the relationship between the temperature index and the yield reduction rate of the single-season rice. The temperature disaster index can be put into the relevant model to obtain the yield reduction rate of the year and determine whether to pay the indemnity. Then, the burn analysis is used to determine the insurance premium rate for all cities in Jiangsu Province under four-level deductibles, and the insurance premium rate can be used for the risk division of the Province. The research provides some insights for the design of agricultural weather insurance products, and the empirical results provide a reference for the design of similar single-season rice temperature index insurance products.
Highlights
Climate warming increases the possibility of weather disasters for agriculture [1]
In the formula, W is the single-season rice insurance index in a certain region of Jiangsu, xc the deductible of the region and x the yield reduction rate in an area caused by weather disasters
Using R and SPSS for stepwise regression, the regression models of the eight cities (Due to the lack of data from five cities in Taizhou, Suqian, Huai’an, Yangzhou and Zhenjiang, only regression analysis for eight cities including Nanjing and Suzhou in Jiangsu Province is conducted.) are significant overall (In model (6), the potential multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of variables are tested by Pearson correlation analysis, Whiter test and Durbin- Watson test, respectively
Summary
Climate warming increases the possibility of weather disasters for agriculture [1]. It is a recurring subject of human society, how agriculture draws on advantages and avoids weather disasters [2]. China is located in the middle latitudes of the northern hemisphere, with various and complex weather system and frequent weather related disasters. Over the past 30 years, weather disasters such as cold springs, droughts and floods, cold winds in autumn, and frost have affected one-third of China’s arable land, causing significant economic losses [3]. How to avoid losses and maintain farmers’ incomes with weather insurance for agricultural products draws considerable attention from the government, academia and the public [4]. Public Health 2019, 16, 1187; doi:10.3390/ijerph16071187 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
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