Design of Open Pit Mines using 3D Model in Two-element Deposits under Price Uncertainty

Abstract

When it comes to evaluating mining projects, uncertainty plays a significant role, particularly in the analysis of mining economic characteristics, which makes the assessment of a mining project erroneous and untrustworthy. The volatility of mineral prices is a major cause of economic ambiguity and concern. Economic uncertainty has extensively been examined in mining production project planning, but the majority of the study has focused on single-element deposits, with little emphasis devoted to the significance of pricing uncertainty in two-element deposits. Using a three-dimensional tree model, this study investigates how design could be affected by the pricing uncertainty of two different elements. In this model, not only annual volatility but also monthly volatility were considered due to momentary changes in the price of several elements. To authenticate the proposed model, a numerical example was resolved using discounted cash flow, binomial tree, pyramid tree, and three-dimensional modeling techniques. The results of each approach were compared to those of real-world data. Following the findings of the current investigation, it can be concluded that the values derived from the suggested model (a net present value of $ 324.2 thousand) are more precise than the values acquired from other approaches, and that they are just 8% out of step with reality. Other methods, on the other hand, come up with results that are at least 17% and at most 39% different from those that come from real data.