Abstract
It is important to estimate the energy-conservation and emission-reduction potentials accurately and design practicable paths to ensure the achievement of the emission reduction target set at the “Paris Climate Conference”. Selecting the petroleum and gas extraction industry, the construction industry, and the transportation industry, which are the greatest energy consumers and carbon emitters in China, this study estimates their energy-conservation and emission-reduction potentials of 2018–2025 and designs the implementation paths. The results show that: (1) under the short-term energy rebound effect, the cumulative energy-conservations of 2018–2025 of the three industriesare17.55%, 18.29%, and 13.46%, respectively; the cumulative emission-reductions are 18.21%, 14.85%, and 16.98%, respectively. Under the long-term rebound effect, the cumulative energy-conservations are 21.3%, 22.39%, and 18.54%, respectively; the cumulative emission-reductions are 19.76%, 18.1%, and 23.75%, respectively. Moreover, the effect of the short-term energy rebound effect is greater than the long-term rebound effect. (2) There are three paths for energy-conservation and emission-reduction: the “unilateral breakthrough”, the “promotion of advantages and compensate for disadvantages”, and the “leap forward” paths. (3) When formulating the energy-conservation and emission-reduction policies, for industries of resource-intensive, factor market distortion, governments’ administrative orders and intensive production should be focused on; for industries of labor-intensive, energy efficiency, energy structure, carbon tax and the upgrade of industry structure should be focused on; for industries of capital-intensive, regional investment bias, the construction of carbon trading system and clean production should be focused on. Our results can provide guidance for the formulation of energy-conservation and emissions-reduction objectives and policies for China’s industry.
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