Design of a radial basis function neural network with a radius-modification algorithm using response surface methodology

Abstract

A radial basis function (RBF) neural network was designed for time series forecasting using both an adaptive learning algorithm and response surface methodology (RSM). To improve the traditional RBF network‘s forecasting capability, the generalized delta rule learning method was employed to modify the radius of the kernel function. Then RSM was utilized to explore the mean square error response surface so that the appropriate combination of network parameters, such as the number of hidden nodes and the initial learning rates, could be found. Extensive studies were performed on the effect of the initial values of connection weights on the accuracy of the backpropagation learning method that was employed in the training of the RBF artificial neural network. The effectiveness of the neural network with the proposed radius-modification technique and the RSM method was demonstrated with an example of forecasting intensity pulsations of a laser. It was found that, by utilizing the proposed techniques, the neural network provided a more accurate prediction of the response.