Design for Time-to-Market – Why Timing is Essential for a Successful Green Hydrogen Economy

Abstract

Within the last years but especially since the beginning of 2022 there is a large increase in the demand of renewable energy. Currently, so-called green hydrogen is one of the most promising energy carriers for renewable energy. To meet the demand for green hydrogen, installation of production technologies like water electrolyzer is necessary. In order to play a role within the hydrogen economy, companies have to be able to design their hydrogen production capacities for a spot-on time-to-market. This leads to difficult ramp-up decisions and trade-offs between costs, technological maturity, and market success. As the phases of research and development influences a significant part of the costs (especially within production) after reaching time-to-market, they determine the later cost structure of the company, the possibilities to gain a competitive advantage or to survive on the market. Analyzing literature with regard to wind and photovoltaic industry shows several factors influencing success. This paper identifies and discusses these critical success factors, transfers their relevance onto the current hydrogen economy, and points out critical aspects for market entry decisions. With respect to a globalized world, in which dependencies from single countries can lead to unwanted constraints, the results become even more important.