Design and research of hybrid forecasting system for wind speed point forecasting and fuzzy interval forecasting

Abstract

Wind energy forecasting and analysis are essential for the management and operation of wind farms. Precise point forecasting of wind speed can assist operators in achieving the optimal dispatching of the power grid and diminish the cost of wind energy production. Interval forecasting can provide an effective reference for determining the rotating reserve of wind farms. Most existing studies have focused on either point forecasting or interval forecasting, and cannot serve as a reference for ensuring the reliability and stability of the power grid. In this study, we designed a novel hybrid forecasting system that includes point forecasting, interval forecasting, and evaluation, to provide technical support for the optimal coordinated dispatching of the power grid. Point forecasting is performed using a data preprocessing model and combined model to achieve higher precision. Interval forecasting estimates the upper and lower limits of the wind speed, which is used to determine the rotating reserve of wind farms and can effectively improve the stability of the power grid. The performance of the forecasting system was evaluated through numerical simulations of the wind speed at four sites in the Penglai wind farm. The results revealed that the proposed hybrid system not only provides accurate wind speed forecasting for coordinated dispatching of the power grid but also serves as a reference for determining the grid rotation reserve.