Design and Optimization of a Coal Substitution Path Based on Cost–Benefit Analysis: Evidence from Coal Resource-Based Cities in China

Abstract

Coal burning is a major contributor to air pollution. Selecting the optimal coal alternative path with economic feasibility and maximum environmental benefits is an important policy choice to mitigate air pollution. It could provide a basis for the design of energy transition policies and the green development of coal resource-based cities. This study designed a coal substitution policy based on the multi-objective optimization model, explored the optimal coal substitution path in coal resource-based cities with the goal of minimizing the costs and maximizing the benefits of coal substitution, and assessed the maximum emission reduction potential of air pollutants. The results show that: (1) by 2025, coal consumption in the study area must be reduced to 85%. The optimal coal substitution path is 90.00% coal-to-electricity and 10.00% coal-to-gas for civil emission sources and 83.94% coal-to-electricity and 16.06% coal-to-gas for industrial boiler emission sources. (2) by 2030, coal consumption must be reduced to 75%. The optimal coal substitution path is 90.00% coal-to-electricity and 10.00% coal-to-gas for civil sources and 78.80% coal-to-electricity and 21.20% coal-to-gas for industrial boiler sources. (3) by implementing the coal substitution policy, emissions of six key air pollutants such as SO2, NOX, CO, VOCs, PM10, and PM2.5 could decrease significantly.