Design and internal validation of S.I.C.K.: a novel nomogram predicting infectious and hemorrhagic events after percutaneous nephrolithotomy.

Abstract

Hemorrhagic and infectious events represent severe complications after percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNLs). Existing nephrolithometric nomograms have been introduced but their reliability in predicting complications is debated. We present a newly designed nomogram with intention to predict hemorrhagic/infectious events after PCNLs. We conducted a multicentric prospective study on adult patients undergoing standard (24 Fr) or mini (18 Fr) PCNL. Dataset was derived from previous RCT, where patients have been assigned to mini-PCNL or standard-PCNL to treat renal stones up to 40 mm. Aim of the study was to identify preoperative risk factors for early postoperative infectious/hemorrhagic complications including fever, septic shock, transfusion or angioembolization. A total of 1980 patients were finally included. 992 patients (50.1%) received mini-PCNL and 848 standard PCNL (49.9%). The overall SFR was 86.1% with a mean maximum stone diameter of 29 mm (SD 25.0-35.0). 178 patients (8.9%) had fever,14 (0.7%) urosepsis, 24 patients (1.2%) required transfusion and 18 (0.9%) angioembolization. The overall complication was (11.7%). After multivariable analysis, the included elements in the nomogram were age (P=0.041), BMI (P=0.018), maximum stone diameter (P<0.001), preoperative hemoglobin (P=0.005), type 1/2 diabetes (P=0.05), eGFR<30 (P=0.0032), hypertension (>135/85 mmHg, P=0.001), previous PCNL or pyelo/nephrolithotomy (P=0.0018), severe hydronephrosis (P=0.002). After internal validation, the AUC of the model was 0.73. This is the first nomogram predicting infections and bleedings after PCNLs, it shows a good accuracy and can support clinicians in their patients' peri-operative workout and management.