Design and economic assessment of alternative renewable energy systems using capital cost projections: A case study for Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Saudi Arabia is establishing ground-monitoring stations for solar irradiance and wind speed. Seven of these, at locations distributed throughout the Kingdom, have recently provided highly accurate data, which are used in the present paper to perform an economic assessment for off-grid renewable energy projects based on load data for a typical Saudi Arabian village. Using future projections of capital costs, this paper analyses wind/battery, PV/battery, and PV/wind/battery systems for projects in these seven location starting in 2019, 2022, and 2025, thus facilitating the planning of when and where to schedule installations. Wind/battery systems have a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) 2.2 to 3.2 times higher than PV/wind/battery and PV/battery systems except in Yanbu, a windy coastal city. In 2019, PV/wind/battery systems have the lowest LCOE in Yanbu ($0.112/kWh) and Sharurah ($0.118/kWh), whereas PV/battery systems are preferable in Al-Jouf, Al-Wajh, Hafr-batin, Jeddah and Riyadh with a range of LCOE from $0.119/kWh to $0.129/kWh. The projected decline in PV and battery costs to 2025 is more rapid than the decline in wind turbine costs so that if projects are deferred, PV/battery systems have the lowest LCOE in each location in 2025. In that year Al-Jouf and Jeddah have the lowest LCOE ($0.711/kWh) and Hafr-batin has the highest ($0.76/kWh). Part of the reason for solar being more economic than wind is the better hourly and monthly match between generation and load, a large proportion of which is air conditioning. As a further contribution, this paper provides a geographical summary of results for policymakers to prioritize cities for the implementation of off-grid RE systems in Saudi Arabia going forward.