Abstract
Southern Europe is a hotspot for desertification risk because of the intimate impact of soil deterioration, landscape transformations, rising human pressure, and climate change. In this context, large-scale empirical analyses linking landscape fragmentation with desertification risk assume that increasing levels of land vulnerability to degradation are associated with significant changes in landscape structure. Using a traditional approach of landscape ecology, this study evaluates the spatial structure of a simulated landscape based on different levels of vulnerability to land degradation using 15 metrics calculated at three time points (early-1960s, early-1990s, early-2010s) in Italy. While the (average) level of land vulnerability increased over time almost in all Italian regions, vulnerable landscapes demonstrated to be increasingly fragmented, as far as the number of homogeneous patches and mean patch size are concerned. The spatial balance in affected and unaffected areas—typically observed in the 1960s—was progressively replaced with an intrinsically disordered landscape, and this process was more intense in regions exposed to higher (and increasing) levels of land degradation. The spread of larger land patches exposed to intrinsic degradation brings to important consequences since (1) the rising number of hotspots may increase the probability of local-scale degradation processes, and (2) the buffering effect of neighbouring (unaffected) land can be less effective on bigger hotspots, promoting a downward spiral toward desertification.
Highlights
Our study provides a quantitative analysis of natural and anthropogenic changes affecting the level of land vulnerability to degradation in an affluent economy classified as ‘affected’ country by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD, Annex IV)
By delineating non-linear trends in land vulnerability, results suggest how the spatial balance between affected and unaffected land is an important trait of any Mediterranean landscape, whose dynamic equilibrium is influenced by the background territorial conditions
A large-scale assessment based on landscape metrics may illustrate—likely better than more traditional approaches—the complex shift in landscape structure and configuration
Summary
Is positioned at the heart of the Mediterranean Basin reaching an impressive extension of coastline of about 7600 kms. Is partitioned in three macro-areas (North, Centre, South) and 20 administrative regions (Fig. 1) for a total area of about 300,000 km[2], in turn subdivided in three elevation classes Large part of Italy enjoys a Mediterranean climate with mildcool winter and dry-warm summer. Acronym MPS PSCoV ED MSI AWMSI MPFD AWMPFD LPI LSI SDI SHEI SIEI. Metric Mean patch size MPS Coefficient of variation Edge density Mean shape index Area-weighted mean shape index Mean patch fractal dimension Area-weighted mean fractal dimension Largest patch index Landscape shape index Shannon diversity index Shannon evenness index.
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