Description, Classification, and Prediction of Dengue Illnesses in a Thai Pediatric Cohort: A Dissertation

Abstract

Dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are emerging infectious diseases which are endemic in many regions of the globe, many of which are resource-poor areas. DHF and DF impose a severe economic health burden in tropical and subtropical areas. Dengue virus causes an acute febrile illness that can be a self-limited febrile illness, as seen in most cases of DF, or a life-threatening illness with plasma leakage and shock, as seen in cases of DHF. A systematic review of the literature revealed gaps in the knowledge base of clinical laboratory findings of dengue illness with regards to longitudinal dynamics and classification and predictive modeling of disease severity. The objective of this thesis was to investigate the utility of clinical laboratory variables for classification and prediction of disease outcomes. The data used in this investigation was derived from a prospective study of Thai children presenting to either of two study hospitals within 72 hours of onset of an acute febrile illness. Systematic data collection, including clinical laboratory parameters, and routine clinical management continued each day until 24 hours after the fever had subsided. A final diagnosis of DHF, DF, or other febrile illness (OFI) was assigned by an expert physician after chart review. The first research objective of this study was to describe the temporal dynamics of clinical laboratory parameters among subjects with DHF, DF, or OFI. Data were analyzed using lowess curves and population-average models.