Description and Evaluation of the Fine Particulate Matter Forecasts in the NCAR Regional Air Quality Forecasting System

Abstract

This paper describes a quasi-operational regional air quality forecasting system for the contiguous United States (CONUS) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to support air quality decision-making, field campaign planning, early identification of model errors and biases, and support the atmospheric science community in their research. This system aims to complement the operational air quality forecasts produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), not to replace them. A publicly available information dissemination system has been established that displays various air quality products, including a near-real-time evaluation of the model forecasts. Here, we report the performance of our air quality forecasting system in simulating meteorology and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for the first year after our system started, i.e., 1 June 2019 to 31 May 2020. Our system shows excellent skill in capturing hourly to daily variations in temperature, surface pressure, relative humidity, water vapor mixing ratios, and wind direction but shows relatively larger errors in wind speed. The model also captures the seasonal cycle of surface PM2.5 very well in different regions and for different types of sites (urban, suburban, and rural) in the CONUS with a mean bias smaller than 1 µg m−3. The skill of the air quality forecasts remains fairly stable between the first and second days of the forecasts. Our air quality forecast products are publicly available at a NCAR webpage. We invite the community to use our forecasting products for their research, as input for urban scale (<4 km), air quality forecasts, or the co-development of customized products, just to name a few applications.