Description and Application of a NPZD Model to Forecast Hurricane Impacts to Secondary Production in Coastal Ecosystems

Abstract

Abstract Increases in hurricane strength and frequency are forecast to occur in association with global climate changes. In coastal ecosystems the passage of a hurricane is associated with increases in nutrients that may cause subsequent increases in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Zooplankton are an important food source for small fishes that are feed on by larger fishes, thus commercial and recreational fisheries could benefit from the passage of a hurricane. NPZD simulations of hurricane scenarios are used to assess the magnitude and resilience of secondary production after the passage of hurricanes with different wind speeds and directions of approach. Short-term increase and recovery of phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass after the passage of hurricanes suggests short-term increase in fish biomass, and a potential benefit to some commercial and recreational fisheries.