Abstract
Up until now, the experience curve has been used as instrument for predicting development in costs of renewable energy technologies. This feature has been used several times in long-term optimisation models, where the experience curve describes technological development in the form of cost reduction over a long period of time. Considering long prediction periods expresses the need for relatively good estimation methods. This along with the increased knowledge of innovation theory has called for a discussion of models to describe cost reduction in order to have more precise predictions. This article aims at a discussion of three methods to describe the development, using the case study of Danish wind power. Therefore, the key result is a list of different models and their pros and cons with respect to the selection of quantitative models describing technological development in the form of cost reduction.
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