Describing and predicting the effectiveness of physical therapy in treatment of lumbar disc herniation using a logistic curve model

Abstract

Objective To establish a mathematical model for describing and predicting the effectiveness of physical therapy on lumbar disc hernation(LDH).Methods Daily comprehensive physical therapy interventions including lumbar traction,mobilization and physical agents were administered to 31 LDH patients for 10 sessions.A visual analogue scale was used to measure the pain intensity before each session.The logistic curve model was used in the regression analysis.The first 2 to 9 pain measurements were involved in different predictive models,and the predictive results were compared among different models.Results In regression analysis,the global R2 was 0.719.In predicting analysis,the more measurements involved in the predictive model,the more effective the prediction.The predictive power was low when the model included less than 4 measurements.the prediction power was high when more than 5 measurements were used in the model.Conclusion The logistic model can describe and predict the effectiveness of multiple physical therapy on LDH patients. Key words: Lumber disc hernation; Physical therapy; Pain measurement; Logistic model; Prediction