Desarrollo, clasificación y tendencias de la modelación lluvia-escurrimiento

Abstract

This paper presents a global historical review of rainfall-runoff modeling, beginning with its inception in the mid-nineteenth century with the rational method and continuing with unit hydrograph theory, the use of computers, and finally the application of Kalman filters and artificial neural networks to achieve greater numerical precision in the design of hydraulic structures and flood forecasting. In developing countries, such as Mexico, the most commonly used models are: 1) those that are available for free and have open forums for users to ask and answer questions, 2) those with theoretical-practical strength, and 3) those with easily available input and output data to feed and calibrate the model. Trends in hydrologic modeling in Mexico include the implementation of distributed models, the upgrading of radars for rainfall prediction and the use of this prediction to feed models for improved early flood forecasting.