DESA: a novel hybrid decomposing-ensemble and spatiotemporal attention model for PM2.5 forecasting.

Abstract

Exposure to fine particulate matter can easily lead to health issues. PM2.5 concentrations are associated with various spatiotemporal factors, which makes the prediction of PM2.5 concentrations still a challenging task. One of the reasons that makes the accurate prediction by statistical learning method difficult is severe fluctuations in input data. In addition, the abstraction method of space will also affect the prediction results. To address these important issues, a novel hybrid decomposing-ensemble and spatiotemporal attention (DESA) model is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy by decomposing the mode-mixed time series into single-mode series and automatically assign weights to the spatiotemporal factors. In our proposed framework, raw PM2.5 series are firstly decomposed into simple sub-series via the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) method. Then, to keep the results independent of the spatial abstraction method, a data-driven approach called multiscale spatiotemporal attention network is employed to extract spatiotemporal features from the sub-series. Finally, the predictions of each sub-series are processed separately and combined to obtain the final prediction results. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model achieved the better performance with RMSE of 11.15, 17.49, 24.84, and 26.93 for 6-, 12-, 24-, and 36-h forecasting, respectively. The proposed method is expected to be applied in fine prediction of air pollution and controlling programs and therefore provide decision support or useful guidance.