Deriving the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram for an urban area using counted flows and taxi GPS

Part I of the thesis investigates novel urban traffic state estimation methods utilizing probe vehicle data. Chapter 2 proposes a method to integrate the collective effect of dispersed probe data with traffic kinematic wave theory and data mining techniques to model the spatial and temporal dynamics of queue formation and dissipation in arterials. The queue estimation method captures interdependencies in queue evolutions of successive intersections, and moreover, the method is applicable in oversaturated conditions and includes a queue spillover statistical inference procedure. Chapter 3 develops a travel time reliability model to estimate arterial route travel times distribution (TTD) considering spatial and temporal correlations between traffic states in consecutive links. The model uses link-level travel time data and a heuristic grid clustering method to estimate the state structure and transition probabilities of a Markov chain. By applying the Markov chain procedure, the correlation between states of successive links is integrated and the route-level TTD is estimated. The methods in Part I are tested with various probe vehicle penetration rates on case studies with field measurements and simulated data. The methods are straightforward in implementation and have demonstrated promising performance and accuracy through numerous experiments. Part II studies network-level modeling and control of large-scale urban networks. Chapter 4 is the pioneer that introduces the urban perimeter control for two-region urban cities as an elegant control strategy to decrease delays in urban networks. Perimeter controllers operate on the border between the two regions, and manipulate the percentages of transfer flows between the two regions, such that the number of trips reaching their destinations is maximized. The optimal perimeter control problem is solved by the model predictive control (MPC) scheme, where the prediction model and the plant (reality) are formulated by macroscopic fundamental diagrams (MFD). Chapter 5 extends the perimeter control strategy and MFD modeling to mixed urban-freeway networks to provide a holistic approach for large-scale integrated corridor management (ICM). The network consists of two urban regions, each one with a well-defined MFD, and a freeway, modeled by the asymmetric cell transmission model, that is an alternative commuting route which has one on-ramp and one off-ramp within each urban region. The optimal traffic control problem is solved by the MPC approach to minimize total delay in the entire network considering several control policies with different levels of urban-freeway control coordination. Chapter 6 integrates traffic heterogeneity dynamics in large-scale urban modeling and control to develop a hierarchical control strategy for heterogeneously congested cities. Two aggregated models, region- and subregion-based MFDs, are introduced to study the effect of link density heterogeneity on the scatter and hysteresis of MFD. A hierarchical perimeter flow control problem is proposed to minimize the network delay and to homogenize the distribution of congestion. The first level of the hierarchical control problem is solved by the MPC approach, where the prediction model is the aggregated parsimonious region-based MFD and the plant is the subregion-based MFD, which is a more detailed model. At the lower level, a feedback controller tries to maximize the network outflow, by increasing regional homogeneity.

Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) is widely used in traffic state evaluation due to its description of the macro level of urban road network. This study focuses on the discrimination and short-term prediction of macro traffic states in urban road networks, using MFD combined with FCM clustering for state partitioning to characterize different macro states of the road network. To predict the MFD state, this paper builds two LSTMs to perform short-term predictions on two important parameters in MFD: road network weighted flow qw and road network weighted density kw. The parameters of the first three statistical intervals and the predicted time period are used as inputs to output the MFD parameters for the predicted time period. To ensure that the two LSTM structures and hyper-parameters settings can achieve the best prediction performance for MFD, the parameter optimization process of both should be included in the same search framework for hyper-parameters search. Therefore, this paper uses GA algorithm combined with multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm as the solving algorithm, with the accuracy of solving two MFD parameters and the accuracy of MFD point positioning as the hyper-parameters solving objectives. The study was validated using actual road network data from Hong Kong, and the results showed that the method proposed in this paper has an MRE prediction error of less than 7.8% for the two parameters of MFD, and can predict the future temporal trend of the two parameters, demonstrating the feasibility of MFD related predictions. The model's prediction of the overall shape and change trajectory trend of MFD is consistent with reality, and some test sets in MFD state prediction show high accuracy, the overall accuracy is 81.45%. To verify the effectiveness of the multi-objective search algorithm, typical LSTM models and RNN models were used for comparison. The experiment proved that the model used in this study performed better in error control and state prediction. This study explores and practices a short-term prediction method for road network MFD parameters, MFD status, and their changing trends. Provided path reference for urban road network prediction, traffic control status, and MFD related research.

The macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) is a graphical method used to characterize the traffic state in a road network and to monitor and evaluate the effect of traffic management. For the determination of an MFD, both traffic volumes and traffic densities are needed. This study introduces a methodology to determine an MFD using combined data from probe vehicles and loop detector counts. The probe vehicles in this study were taxis with GPS. The ratio of taxis in the total traffic was determined and used to convert taxi density to the density of all vehicles. This ratio changes over the day and between different links. We found evidence that the MFD was rather similar for days in the same year based on real data collected in Changsha, China. The difference between MFDs made of data from 2013 and 2015 reveals that the modification of traffic control can influence the MFD significantly. A macroscopic fundamental diagram could also be drawn for an area with incomplete data gained from a sample of loop detectors. An MFD based on incomplete data can also be used to monitor the emergence and disappearance of congestion, just as an MFD based on complete traffic data.

Recent advances in traffic flow theory at the network level, namely the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD), reveals the existence of well-defined laws of congestion dynamics at aggregated levels. The same knowledge for multimodal networks however is limited. It is critical to understand how urban space can be allocated and managed for multimodality. The objective is to develop aggregated modeling and optimization approaches, which will contribute on the knowledge of congestion dynamics in cities of different structures and mode usages, and ultimately facilitate the design of efficient and equitable urban transport policies. Building on the knowledge of the single-mode MFD theory, a bi-modal MFD model considering the effect of mode conflict is proposed for mixed networks of buses and cars. A system-level model is developed for multiple-region city network. The flow dynamics among regions are described by a regional level flow conservation law. A non-linear optimization framework is performed to optimize space allocation, minimizing the total passenger cost, given certain demand, city structure and road facility. Then, parking limitation is integrated in the proposed multi-modal system model, where vehicles cruising for parking are also integrated. The extra delay of cruising is captured by a geometric distribution related to the time-dependent parking availability and estimated at the aggregated level. The delay cost to other users is also estimated via the bi-modal MFD, and it shows the effect of cruising on all travelers who do not require parking. Optimal parking pricing policies for on-street and garage parking are obtained through the optimization framework, as well. The existence of a three-dimensional MFD (3D-MFD) for mixed bi-modal networks is investigated and analyzed via micro-traffic simulation studies. A 3D-MFD relates vehicular production of a network (flow, travel distance) to the density of cars and buses, where the impact of each mode on network performance can be directly observed. To further compare the modal impact on performance, the Bus-Car Unit equivalent value is estimated, indicating that this value is state- and mode-composition dependent rather than deterministic. In addition to the conventional vehicle-flow-based analysis, a passenger 3D-MFD is derived which provides a different perspective of the flow characteristics in bi-modal networks. Simulation study on 3D-MFD based perimeter-control shows promising performance in real-time control. The final part of the thesis concerns the MFD-controlled congestion pricing. Feedback-type control mechanisms are proposed to determine and adjust the time-dependent tolls, based on congestion level as expressed by the MFD. One pricing scheme also considers userâ s adaptation to the toll cost, allowing a great flexibility in toll adjustment, and deals with the promotion of public transport usage. The performance of the pricing schemes is investigated in an existing agent-based model where the complex travel behavior in real-life is reasonably reproduced. Results demonstrate that the pricing schemes are effective in congestion reduction. Remarkably, smooth behavioral equilibrium in long-term operation is found under such pricing schemes. Furthermore, user heterogeneity with respect to value-of-time is introduced in the agent-based model. By realizing and treating this heterogeneity, pricing strategies can achieve even higher efficiency and equitable benefit.

Properties of a well-defined macroscopic fundamental diagram for urban traffic

This article uses the macroscopic fundamental diagram as a tool to study the traffic operation status of the road network. Using Chengdu's Didi trajectory data, a macroscopic fundamental diagram model of Chengdu's road network was constructed. This article divides the macroscopic fundamental diagram model curve into three segments. According to the position of the macroscopic fundamental diagram trend curve in each period, the operation state of each section of the road network in the trend curve is verified. Due to the huge amount of data, this article uses python programming language and Sql Server database to process traffic flow data to obtain and display the parameters required by the macroscopic fundamental diagram curve., According to the trend line of the macroscopic fundamental diagram and the position of the macroscopic fundamental diagram trend line graph at each time, analyzes the traffic operation status of the road network at each time period to find out place and the degree of congestion, and further analyze the traffic operation status to derive the relationship between each other. This further aids in providing timely and reliable traffic status information for traffic managers and traffic participants.

Data fusion for estimating Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram in large-scale urban networks

Corrigendum to “Estimating MFDs in Simple Networks with Route Choice”

Estimating MFDs in Simple Networks with Route Choice

Estimating MFDs in simple networks with route choice

Accurate estimation of macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) is the precondition of MFD’s application. At present, there are two traditional estimation methods of road network’s MFD, such as the loop detector data (LDD) estimation method and the floating car data (FCD) estimation method, but there are limitations in both traditional estimation methods. In order to improve the accuracy of road network MFD estimation, a few scholars have studied the fusion method of road network MFD estimation, but there are still some shortcomings on the whole. However, based on the research of adaptive weighted averaging (AWA) fusion method for MFD estimation of road network, I propose to use the MFD’s two parameters of road network obtained by LDD estimation method and FCD estimation method, and establish a back-propagation neural network data fusion model for MFD parameters of road network (BPNN estimation fusion method), and then the micro-traffic simulation model of connected-vehicle network based on Vissim software is established by taking the intersection group of the core road network in Tianhe District of Guangzhou as the simulation experimental area, finally, compared and analyzed two MFD estimation fusion methods of road network, in order to determine the best MFD estimation fusion method of road network. The results show that the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of the parameters of road network’s MFD and the average absolute values of difference values of the state ratio of road network’s MFD are both the smallest after BPNN estimation fusion, which is the closest to the standard MFD of road network. It can be seen that the result of BPNN estimation fusion method is better than that of AWA estimation fusion method, which can improve the accuracy of road network MFD estimation effectively.

Road network traffic management and control are the key mechanisms to alleviate urban traffic congestion. With this study, we aimed to characterize the traffic flow state of urban road networks using the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) to support area traffic control. The core property of an MFD is that the network flow is maximized when network traffic stays at an optimal accumulation state. The property can be used to optimize the temporal and spatial distribution of traffic flow with applications such as gating control. MFD construction is the basis of these MFD-based applications. Although many studies have been conducted to construct MFDs, few studies are dedicated to improving the accuracy considering the reliability of different sources of data. To this end, we propose an MFD construction method using multi-source data based on Dempster–Shafer evidence (DS evidence) theory considering the reliability of different data sources. First, the MFD was constructed using VTD and CSD, separately. Then, the fused MFD was derived by quantifying the reliability of different sources of data for each MFD parameter based on DS evidence theory. The results under real data and simulated data show that the accuracy of the constructed MFDs was greatly improved considering the reliability of different data sources (the maximum MFD estimation error was reduced by 22.3%). The proposed method has the potential to support the evaluation of traffic operations and the optimization of signal control schemes for urban traffic networks.

Functional form selection and calibration of macroscopic fundamental diagrams

Dynamics of heterogeneity in urban networks: aggregated traffic modeling and hierarchical control

Evaluation of analytical approximation methods for the macroscopic fundamental diagram