Abstract
Specifying rates or probabilities of safety events in aviation requires careful explication of the denominators or baseline numbers. Often the appropriate data are missing from the database that is used, and such data can be difficult to obtain. This can lead to stating rates and probabilities using inappropriate denominators for what is being implied, a problem well understood by statisticians. This paper uses runway incursion operational error data to illustrate this problem, and suggests how, though absolute probabilities may not be specifiable, nevertheless by using a simple contingent probability manipulation known as Bayes’ rule meaningful probability ratios can be derived.
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