Abstract
This work investigates potential cost reduction trajectories of three emerging offshore renewable energy technologies (floating offshore wind, tidal stream, and wave) with respect to meeting ambitious cost targets set out in the Strategic Energy Technology Implementation Plans (SET-Plans) for Offshore Wind and Ocean Energy. A methodology is presented which calculates target costs for current early-stage devices, starting from the 2030 SET-Plan levelised cost targets. Component-based experience curves have been applied as part of the methodology, characterised through the comparative maturity level of each technology-specific cost centre. The resultant early-stage target costs are then compared with actual costs for current devices to highlight where further cost reduction is still required. It has been found that innovation and development requirements to reach these targets vary greatly between different technologies, based on their current level of technological maturity. Future funding calls and programmes should be designed with these variables in mind to support innovative developments in offshore renewables. The method presented in this paper has been applied to publicly available cost data for emerging renewable technologies and is fully adaptable to calculate the innovation requirements for specific early-stage renewable energy devices.
Highlights
Offshore renewable energy (ORE) is forecast to form a significant component of energy decarbonisation for the UK, with the offshore wind sector deal specifying a 40 GW target for offshore wind deployments by 2030, including 1 GW from floating offshore wind [1]
To contribute effectively to the UK energy mix and access current policy mechanisms, early-stage offshore renewables such as floating offshore wind, tidal stream and wave energy need to significantly reduce costs in order to become commercially viable
A methodology known as ‘reversed levelised cost of energy (LCOE)’ [16] has been used to id In this wotrhke, acomstetrheoqduoirleomgyenktnsoownndaisff‘erreevnetrsseudbsLyCsOteEm’ s[1t6o] mhaesebt eaensyustseemd tloevideel nLtCifyOE target the cost requirmemetehnotdsoolnogdyifwfearsentht esnubesxytesntedmeds tboymuesientgaesxypseterimenlceevecul LrvCeOs tEottarragnestl.aTtehcisommercia methodology wtaargs ethtse,nasexctaelncdueladtebdy tuhsrionuggehxptheerierenvceercsuedrvLesCtOoEtramnestlhaotedc, otmo mcoesrtctihalrecsohsot lds whic targets, as calcmuloarteedaptphlriocaubglhe ttohethreevceurrsreedntLdCeOveElompmetehnotds,ttaotucsoostf wtharevseh, otilddasl wsthreiachma, raend floatin more applicable to the current development status of wave, tidal stream, and floating offshore windstheochrenowloingdietse.cThhnaotloisg,itehse
Summary
Offshore renewable energy (ORE) is forecast to form a significant component of energy decarbonisation for the UK, with the offshore wind sector deal specifying a 40 GW target for offshore wind deployments by 2030, including 1 GW from floating offshore wind [1]. The UK has a large marine energy resource [2], and the potential to utilise other early-stage offshore renewable technologies such as wave and tidal energy to meet decarbonisation targets. To contribute effectively to the UK energy mix and access current policy mechanisms, early-stage offshore renewables such as floating offshore wind, tidal stream and wave energy need to significantly reduce costs in order to become commercially viable. LCOE targets for these technologies have been established at a European level, at 90 €/MWh, 100 €/MWh and 150 €/MWh by 2030 for floating wind, tidal stream and wave energy, respectively, as part of the Strategic Energy Technology Implementation Plans (SET-Plans) [6,7]
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