Derivation of Region-specific Curve Number for an Improved Runoff Prediction Accuracy

Abstract

Abstract The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Soil Conservation Services (SCS) rainfall-runoff model has been applied worldwide since 1954 and adopted by Malaysian government agencies. Malaysia does not have regional specific curve numbers (CN) available for the use in rainfall-runoff modelling, and therefore a SCS-CN practitioner has no option but to adopt its guideline and handbook values which are specific to the US region. The selection of CN to represent a watershed becomes subjective and even inconsistent to represent similar land cover area. In recent decades, hydrologists argue about the accuracy of the predicted runoff results from the model and challenge the validity of the key parameter, initial abstraction ratio coefficient (λ) and the use of CN. Unlike the conventional SCS-CN technique, the proposed calibration methodology in this chapter discarded the use of CN as input to the SCS model and derived statistically significant CN value of a specific region through rainfall-runoff events directly under the guide of inferential statistics. Between July and October of 2004, the derived λ was 0.015, while λ = 0.20 was rejected at alpha = 0.01 level at Melana watershed in Johor, Malaysia. Optimum CN of 88.9 was derived from the 99% confidence interval range from 87.4 to 96.6 at Melana watershed. Residual sum of square (RSS) was reduced by 79% while the runoff model of Nash–Sutcliffe was improved by 233%. The SCS rainfall-runoff model can be calibrated quickly to address urban runoff prediction challenge under rapid land use and land cover changes.