Derivation and Validation of Spontaneous Coronary Artery Dissection Prediction Score in Patients With Myocardial Infarction

Abstract

Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) is an important cause of acute myocardial infarction (AMI); however, the prevalence of SCAD and its predictors in AMI are unknown. We sought to derive and validate a simple score that can help predict SCAD in patients with AMI. We analyzed the Nationwide Readmissions Database and created a risk score for SCAD in patients with an index hospitalization for AMI. We used a multivariate logistic regression analysis to determine the independent predictors of SCAD, and each was assigned points proportional to its regression coefficient. Among 1,155,164 patients with AMI, 8,630 (0.75%) had SCAD. Based on the derivation cohort, the independent predictors of SCAD were fibromuscular dysplasia (odds ratio [OR] 67.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] 42.0 to 107.9, p <0.01), Marfan or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (OR 4.7, 95% CI 1.7 to 12.5, p <0.01), polycystic ovarian syndrome (OR 5.4, 95% CI 3.0 to 9.8, p <0.01), female gender (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.9 to 2.1, p <0.01), and aortic aneurysm (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.7, p <0.01). The SCAD risk score included fibromuscular dysplasia (5 points), Marfan or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (2 points), polycystic ovarian syndrome (2 points), female gender (1 point), and aortic aneurysm (1 point). The C-statistics of the score were 0.58 (derivation cohort) and 0.61 (validation cohort). In conclusion, the SCAD score is an easy bedside clinical tool that can help clinicians identify patients with AMI who are at risk for SCAD.