De-risking superhot EGS development through 3D play fairway analysis: Methodology development and application at Newberry Volcano, Oregon, USA

Abstract

The DErisking Exploration for multiple geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments (DEEPEN) project aims to de-risk exploration of geothermal plays in magmatic systems, with a focus on superhot and supercritical geothermal systems. This article presents advancements in geoscientific assessment of superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS) resources as part of the DEEPEN project, particularly in exploration and identification of these systems. While there exists a general consensus on key components of conventional hydrothermal systems, there has not been a prior consensus on such components for EGS, let alone superhot EGS. The DEEPEN project identified these key components for superhot EGS plays, and used them to modify the traditional geothermal play fairway analysis (PFA) approach to identify favorable areas in superhot EGS plays in 3D. This was done through modeling both favorability and uncertainty separately for each key component of a superhot EGS play, incorporating diverse 3D geoscientific datasets, including geologic features, models produced from direct observations, single inversions, and joint inversions. The PFA is applied to Newberry Volcano as a form of validation. The results appear to validate the methodology, aligning with expectations derived from conceptual modeling, and highlighting the area targeted for EGS stimulation well NWG 55-29 as favorable, and suggesting potential additional areas worthy of exploration at Newberry.